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Asia Cup 2022 scenarios – India can hope for final spot if Pakistan lose to both Afghanistan and Sri Lanka

Two defeats in two games in the Super 4s means India’s chances of qualifying for the 2022 Asia Cup final are hanging in the balance, if so. Sri Lanka, meanwhile, is almost through, although there is still a chance they may lose it. Here’s a look at how the teams are doing with three games to go.

Afghanistan
Matches 1, Points 0, NRR -0.589, Games Remaining: vs Pakistan & India

If Afghanistan loses to Pakistan, they will be knocked out [along with India]. If they beat Pakistan but lose to India, they must hope that Sri Lanka beat Pakistan on Friday so that three teams are level with one win each.

If Afghanistan wins both matches, they will definitely qualify if Sri Lanka beat Pakistan on Friday. If Sri Lanka loses to Pakistan, three teams are tied on two wins and the net run rate comes into play.

India
Matches 2, Points 0, NRR -0.125, Game Remaining: vs Afghanistan

India’s only chance of reaching the final is when Sri Lanka finishes with three wins and the other three teams have one win each. In that case, the team with the best NRR from Afghanistan, India and Pakistan will face Sri Lanka in the final.

For India to qualify, Pakistan must lose both of its remaining matches, against Afghanistan and Sri Lanka, while India must defeat Afghanistan on Thursday. If Pakistan defeats Afghanistan, both India and Afghanistan will be knocked out.

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Pakistan
Matches 1, Points 2, NRR 0.126, Remaining matches: vs Afghanistan and Sri Lanka

If Pakistan beats Afghanistan, they will qualify for the final along with Sri Lanka. If they lose on Wednesday and beat Sri Lanka on Friday, they still qualify if India beats Afghanistan on Thursday. However, if Afghanistan wins both remaining matches, Pakistan will have to beat Sri Lanka and hope their NRR is in the top two.

If Pakistan lose both remaining matches, they must hope India beats Afghanistan, in which case three teams will have one win each. NRR then determines the second finalists.

Sri Lanka
Matches 2, Points 4, NRR 0.351, Game Remaining: vs Pakistan

Sri Lanka is sitting pretty with two wins out of two. The only way they can fall short is if they lose to Pakistan and Afghanistan and beat both Pakistan and India. In that event, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Afghanistan will each finish in two points, with NRR deciding which two teams qualify. However, for that to happen, Afghanistan must defeat Pakistan and India in two different locations on consecutive days.

S Rajesh is ESPNcricinfo statistics editor. @rajeshstats

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