Matches 1, Points 0, NRR -0.589, Games Remaining: vs Pakistan & India
If Afghanistan loses to Pakistan, they will be knocked out [along with India]. If they beat Pakistan but lose to India, they must hope that Sri Lanka beat Pakistan on Friday so that three teams are level with one win each.
If Afghanistan wins both matches, they will definitely qualify if Sri Lanka beat Pakistan on Friday. If Sri Lanka loses to Pakistan, three teams are tied on two wins and the net run rate comes into play.
Matches 2, Points 0, NRR -0.125, Game Remaining: vs Afghanistan
India’s only chance of reaching the final is when Sri Lanka finishes with three wins and the other three teams have one win each. In that case, the team with the best NRR from Afghanistan, India and Pakistan will face Sri Lanka in the final.
For India to qualify, Pakistan must lose both of its remaining matches, against Afghanistan and Sri Lanka, while India must defeat Afghanistan on Thursday. If Pakistan defeats Afghanistan, both India and Afghanistan will be knocked out.
Matches 1, Points 2, NRR 0.126, Remaining matches: vs Afghanistan and Sri Lanka
If Pakistan beats Afghanistan, they will qualify for the final along with Sri Lanka. If they lose on Wednesday and beat Sri Lanka on Friday, they still qualify if India beats Afghanistan on Thursday. However, if Afghanistan wins both remaining matches, Pakistan will have to beat Sri Lanka and hope their NRR is in the top two.
If Pakistan lose both remaining matches, they must hope India beats Afghanistan, in which case three teams will have one win each. NRR then determines the second finalists.
Matches 2, Points 4, NRR 0.351, Game Remaining: vs Pakistan
Sri Lanka is sitting pretty with two wins out of two. The only way they can fall short is if they lose to Pakistan and Afghanistan and beat both Pakistan and India. In that event, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Afghanistan will each finish in two points, with NRR deciding which two teams qualify. However, for that to happen, Afghanistan must defeat Pakistan and India in two different locations on consecutive days.
S Rajesh is ESPNcricinfo statistics editor. @rajeshstats